Xavier Becerra holds a commanding lead among Latino voters in California’s governor’s race, but a new Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows something that neither campaign can afford to ignore: roughly one in three Latino likely voters is backing his Republican opponent, Steve Hilton, a candidate endorsed by President Trump. The reason, according to the numbers and the messaging driving them, comes down to one issue that cuts across party lines: the cost of living.
The numbers
The Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll, conducted August 3 to 9 among a weighted sample of 2,310 likely voters, found Becerra leading Hilton 57% to 35% among Latino voters, with 8% undecided. That gives Becerra a 22-point advantage among Latinos, four points wider than his 18-point lead statewide, where he led 55% to 37%.
On paper, that looks like a strong showing for the Democrat. But more than a third of Latino likely voters are backing a Republican in a state where the GOP makes up only about 25% of registered voters, compared to 45% for Democrats. That gap between the party’s overall standing and its performance among Latinos is exactly what makes this subgroup worth watching heading into November.
Why cost of living cuts through party lines
Berkeley IGS polling has consistently found that the cost of living is, by a wide margin, the top concern for California voters overall, cited by 36% as their most important issue, ahead of housing affordability, homelessness, and even the state of democracy. That concern doesn’t break cleanly along party lines, and Hilton has built his entire campaign around it.
Hilton, a British American former Fox News contributor, has pitched himself as a candidate for people “crushed by the impossible” cost of living in California. His signature policy is eliminating the state income tax on the first $100,000 in earnings and moving to a flat tax rate, paired with promises to cut the gas tax, boost oil drilling, and roll back environmental regulations he blames for the state’s high gas and housing prices. His closing argument, in his own words, is simple: “If you’re happy with the way that California is being run, Xavier Becerra is your guy. If you want change, vote for me.”
That message does not require ideological alignment with Trump or the Republican Party to land. For Latino voters who are small business owners, hourly workers, or renters feeling squeezed by housing and utility costs, an affordability pitch can resonate independently of partisan identity, especially in a state where more than half of residents say they’ve considered leaving because of the cost of living.
Becerra’s counter
Becerra’s campaign has leaned hard into tying Hilton to Trump as its central line of attack. “Steve Hilton is Donald Trump’s ride or die,” Becerra spokesperson Jonathan Underland said. “ICE raids, healthcare cuts, skyrocketing costs. Steve backs all of it, and as governor he’d bring every last god-awful thing Trump’s done to your doorstep.”
That framing appears to be working with the majority of Latino voters, but not all of them. Becerra himself, the son of Mexican immigrants and a candidate who would become California’s first Latino governor since the 1800s, has leaned on his own biography on the trail, telling supporters his family’s story mirrored his “underdog” campaign. Still, Berkeley IGS co-director Eric Schickler cautioned against reading too much into that identity connection. “He polls about as well among Latinos, white voters, Black voters and Asian Americans as you would expect for a Democrat,” Schickler said. “We’re not seeing his status as the first Latino candidate at this stage playing a big role.”
The regional wrinkle
The Inland Empire, a region with a large and politically significant Latino population, shows just how close this race can get outside deep blue strongholds like Los Angeles County or the Bay Area. Statewide polling puts Hilton essentially tied with Becerra there, 48% to 46%. The Berkeley IGS poll doesn’t break out Latino voters specifically within that region, so it would be a mistake to assume the region’s overall numbers reflect its Latino electorate. But the contrast is a reminder that California’s governor’s race can’t be read as a single, uniform contest. What’s happening in Los Angeles looks very different from what’s happening just to its east.
The bottom line
Becerra’s lead among Latino voters is real and sizable. But the third of that electorate leaning toward Hilton signals that affordability, not identity or party loyalty alone, is shaping up to be the real battleground for the Latino vote in 2026. With early voting starting in October and both campaigns aware of the numbers, expect the messaging fight over who can actually lower costs in California to intensify, and expect it to be fought hardest in the communities where the cost of living isn’t an abstraction but a monthly math problem.
