“What is remarkable is that Latino voters rank number one among first time voters,” he says with a laugh. “And that is not all. They also rank second among people voting for only the second time.”
What Happened to the Latino Vote in California’s Recent Primary Elections?
“Latinos began to engage in numbers we had never seen before. We have not finalized all the figures yet, but the data we have shows record high participation. It was not evident at the beginning of the election cycle. Young Latino voters started becoming engaged three or four days before Election Day, and that ultimately benefited Xavier Becerra. That is why his numbers started slowly and then surged,” says Matt Barreto, Professor of Political Science and Chicana/o and Central American Studies at UCLA and co founder of the research and polling firm BSP Research, in an interview with the organization Latino Victory.
According to Barreto, one of the most respected experts on Latino voting trends, particularly in elections, the Latino community experienced what could be described as a call to action. Following the presidential election that brought Donald Trump back to power, many Latino voters reassessed their political choices in light of unfulfilled economic promises, aggressive immigration enforcement policies, and a perceived lack of opportunities.
“That is especially evident in the Central Valley, where we have seen the victory of Randy Villegas in an area where Trump performed well in 2024. This time, voters chose a Democrat who was seen as being outside the political establishment,” the political scientist explains.
Barreto and his team have documented record Latino voter participation, although he notes that turnout still has room to grow.
“We know that Latinos, like any other group, tend to vote in lower numbers during primary elections. What is surprising is the level of participation we saw this time. We still need to compare all the data we are receiving, but that is clearly the trend,” he says.
What Barreto believes is most significant is that Latino voters emerged as the most important group of new voters heading into the general election in November.
“What is remarkable is that Latino voters rank number one among first time voters,” he says with a laugh. “And that is not all. They also rank second among people voting for only the second time.”
Becerra clearly benefited from this trend. Young Latinos and working class voters overwhelmingly supported him. The message, Barreto argues, is clear: Latino voters will participate and support strong candidates regardless of conventional political expectations.
“This is now the second election in which we have seen this phenomenon in California. We saw it during the vote on Proposition 50, and now again in these primaries,” he says.
At the same time, Barreto warns that this trend presents major challenges as the November election approaches.
“There is a tremendous amount of disinformation. Latinos are being targeted with content circulating on social media, much of it generated with artificial intelligence and designed to influence their vote. Some of it is even being produced outside the United States. That is the major challenge for November. We need to build trustworthy, relevant information that voters can access with confidence. There is a great deal of distrust toward traditional media, which is why it is essential to counter this phenomenon,” he says.
Barreto points to two examples, including the wave of misinformation surrounding Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and the issue of homelessness.
“False and misleading information was widely shared and often taken out of context. The reality is that Bass has done more than most to address this problem and has made more progress on the issue than anyone in recent years. If you relied solely on what was circulating on social media and other outlets, you would come away with the opposite impression,” Barreto adds.
He emphasizes that it is critically important to provide new voters with accurate and accessible information, including election dates, ballot measures, and candidates’ platforms. New voters, in particular, are looking for factual information.
“All of this false narrative is damaging the electoral process. It is something that must be confronted,” he says.
