The last time President Trump faced a midterm election, in 2018, congressional Republicans were dragged down by their unpopularity and lost more than three dozen House seats.
But even in defeat, the bottom never truly fell out for the Republicans that year — the party actually gained ground in the Senate — as working-class white voters largely kept their faith in Mr. Trump’s economic know-how.
Today, that once-deep reservoir of good will has largely evaporated.
Blue-collar white voters are, for the first time, seriously doubting Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy. A review of polling by The New York Times shows an extraordinary swing on that issue among white voters without college degrees between his first midterm election and now.
Then, working-class white voters approved of his management of the economy by margins of 30 percentage points or even more. Now, recent polls show them disapproving by anywhere from 14 to more than 30 points.
Mr. Trump’s approval on the economy has dropped across practically every group. But his cratering support among a loyal demographic that has served as the foundation of his political coalition for a decade has the potential to be among the most consequential developments of 2026, according to interviews with strategists in both parties who are involved in the midterms.
Polls now regularly show that a majority of white voters who did not graduate from college no longer approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy. Examples of his low ratings include polls from Fox News (33 percent approval), CBS News (39 percent), NPR/PBS/Marist (40 percent), CNN (43 percent) and The New York Times/Siena College (47 percent).
In other words, he has lost the faith of his most loyal supporters on the year’s most pressing issue.
Mr. Trump’s advisers are actively pressing to shore up support, trying to sell policies in last year’s tax cut package.
The Treasury Department this month released a new report detailing how workers benefited from the tax bill. And then this past week, Mr. Trump’s $350 million super PAC, MAGA Inc., put out his very first statement since the 2024 election. The topic was telling: how tax cuts specifically helped the working and middle class.
