As the November 3 election approaches, U.S. citizens living in Tijuana and other Baja California communities can vote from abroad or travel to California, but participation remains difficult to measure.
As Election Day approaches, Americans living in Baja California face a choice between voting from Mexico through absentee ballots or traveling across the border to cast their ballots in California.
For some U.S. citizens living in Mexico, Election Day involves more than finding a polling place. It can mean crossing an international border to participate in an election in the country where they retain their voting rights.
With the November 3 election approaching, attention is turning to Americans who live in Mexican communities such as Tijuana, Rosarito, Tecate, and Ensenada but maintain ties to California through family, work, property, or their previous residence.
The potential voting population is significant. According to estimates from the Federal Voting Assistance Program, approximately 91,000 voting-age U.S. citizens were living in Mexico in 2022. That figure covers the entire country, not just Baja California, and does not establish how many are registered in California or plan to cross the border to vote.
Still, historical reporting suggests that cross-border voting has been part of the region’s electoral landscape for years.
A community with ties on both sides
The relationship between California and Baja California goes beyond geography. Thousands of people maintain personal, professional, and family connections across the international boundary.
Some U.S. citizens have retired in Mexico because of lower living expenses. Others moved for family reasons, employment, or lifestyle changes. Despite living abroad, many retain their right to participate in U.S. elections.
For these voters, elections in California can remain important because decisions made by elected officials affect their former communities, relatives and, in some cases, property and financial interests.
The Federal Voting Assistance Program estimated that approximately 3.1% of eligible U.S. citizens living in Mexico participated in the 2022 midterm elections. Applying that percentage to the estimated 91,000 voting-age citizens would produce approximately 2,821 voters nationwide. This is a calculation, not an official count of ballots cast.
The numbers illustrate both the potential size of the overseas electorate and the challenges of measuring its participation.
Voting without crossing the border
Crossing into the United States is not necessary for Americans living in Mexico who want to vote.
The federal overseas voting program allows eligible citizens to request absentee ballots through the Federal Voting Assistance Program. Voters generally use their last U.S. voting residence to determine where they are registered.
California also provides absentee voting options for eligible overseas voters.
However, voters must pay attention to registration requirements, ballot return instructions, and deadlines. Depending on the circumstances, returning a ballot by mail or using an approved delivery method may be necessary.
For Americans who have not completed the absentee voting process, voting in person may remain an option if they meet California’s registration and voting requirements.
The border crossing challenge
For those choosing to vote in person, the journey can involve unpredictable waiting times.
The San Ysidro Port of Entry, connecting Tijuana with California, is one of the busiest land border crossings in the world. Pedestrians and motorists can encounter long lines, particularly during peak travel periods.
A voter traveling from Tijuana to a California vote center must consider the time required to cross the border, reach the voting location, and return home.
There is historical evidence that some Americans living in Mexico have made that journey specifically to vote.
During the 2020 presidential election, the Los Angeles Times reported that hundreds, potentially thousands, of U.S. citizens living in Tijuana had voted or planned to cross into the United States to cast their ballots.
The newspaper also reported an unofficial estimate that as many as 75,000 eligible U.S. voters could be living in Baja California at the time. That figure was not an official election authority count and should not be interpreted as a current estimate for 2026.
Nevertheless, the 2020 experience provides an important reference point for understanding the relationship between the border region and California elections.
Who is actually crossing to vote?
One of the unanswered questions surrounding this election is how many Americans living in Mexico intend to cross the border specifically to cast a ballot.
Election officials in California could help clarify how overseas voters are registered, how many absentee ballots have been requested, and whether their offices are receiving questions about in person voting by residents living in Mexico.
Community organizations serving Americans abroad may also provide insight into whether voters are choosing absentee ballots or considering travel to California.
The number of overseas ballots requested or returned could help measure participation, although it would not establish how many people physically crossed the border.
A vote that crosses borders
For Americans living in Baja California, voting is one of the connections that can continue long after a move to Mexico.
Some will participate from their homes through absentee ballots. Others may decide to travel north to vote in person. Their choices depend on registration status, election rules, transportation and personal circumstances.
The estimated 91,000 voting-age U.S. citizens living in Mexico, combined with historical reports of Tijuana residents crossing into California to vote, demonstrate the importance of understanding this cross-border electorate.
