New attention is falling on the large number of Americans living in Mexico without updated residency documents, especially in expat hubs like Mérida. The issue highlights growing migration shifts between the U.S. and Mexico as immigration debates intensify on both sides of the border.
If you live in Mérida, or you’re seriously considering the move, you already know the version of the immigration story that dominates headlines north of the border. There’s another version — one rarely talked about in English — and it’s worth understanding before you make decisions about your tourist permit, your bus tickets, or your timeline for getting residency.
The version goes like this: somewhere between 700,000 and 1 million Americans are living in Mexico without current legal status. The Mexican government knows. INM knows. And until very recently, almost nobody enforced anything.
What the Numbers Actually Say
The most-cited figure comes from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the national statistics agency. Their census data has been interpreted to show that around 934,698 U.S. citizens were living in Mexico without proper visas or documents to live full-time in the country, up roughly 37.8% from 673,866 in 2015.
A separate analysis of 2015 INEGI data by the Mexican daily Excelsior found that of 739,168 U.S. citizens living in Mexico that year, only 65,302 had legal residency — which is where the eye-popping “91% of Americans in Mexico are undocumented” figure that circulated in 2017 originated.
The U.S. State Department has long estimated that around one million Americans live in Mexico, with a majority living illegally.
That said, these numbers deserve a hard squint. Here’s what they don’t tell you cleanly:
Dual nationality muddies the count. A significant portion of “Americans” counted by INEGI may have Mexican parents or grandparents and can claim Mexican nationality. When one analysis dug into the underlying survey, roughly 47% of the Americans surveyed said they could claim Mexican nationality — although that’s not the same as being a citizen with documents in hand.
INEGI captures self-reported residence, not legal status. The “undocumented” figure is inferred by comparing census responses to INM residency records — not by anyone actually checking each person’s paperwork.
The 2020 census didn’t break it out as cleanly as 2010. And nothing post-pandemic has been published with the same level of detail, despite migration patterns shifting dramatically.
So the honest framing isn’t “exactly 934,698 Americans are illegal.” It’s: somewhere between 700,000 and well over a million Americans are living in Mexico without current legal status, and most of them either don’t realize it, or have convinced themselves it doesn’t matter.
