Nithya Raman has opened a significant lead over Karen Bass in the latest Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll, marking her strongest showing yet in the survey as the mayoral runoff enters its final weeks.
Raman is favored by 39% of likely Los Angeles voters, compared with 28% for Bass, according to the poll released Wednesday. Another 33% remain undecided, an unusually large share of the electorate this close to the election.
The regional numbers are particularly notable. Raman leads in nearly every geographic area measured by the poll, with Central Los Angeles, Northeast Los Angeles and the East Side breaking strongly for Raman.
The Los Angeles Times described the geographic results as a significant part of Raman’s showing, noting that “central Los Angeles as well as northeast and the east side of Los Angeles broke strongly for Raman.”
The picture is more competitive in other parts of the city. In South Los Angeles and the Harbor region, Bass leads Raman 37% to 34%. In the San Fernando Valley, Raman leads 34% to 26%, although 40% of voters remain undecided. On the Westside, Raman holds a narrow 35% to 34% advantage.
A Large Undecided Electorate
While Raman’s lead is the headline number, the 33% undecided figure is one of the most significant findings in the poll.
The survey found that much of the uncertainty is connected to voters who supported Spencer Pratt in the June 2 primary.
Pratt received 26% of the vote in the primary, but 63% of his former voters remain undecided about the runoff. Among those Pratt voters who have made a choice, 22% favor Bass and 16% favor Raman.
The high level of uncertainty comes as mail ballots are scheduled to begin going out on October 1, ahead of the November 3 election.
Raman’s Strongest Showing
The new survey represents Raman’s strongest showing yet in a Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll.
Raman finished second to Bass in the June 2 primary, receiving 29% of the vote compared with Bass’ 34%. During the primary campaign, Bass had led Raman in nearly every poll.
The latest Berkeley IGS survey shows a considerably different picture. In a previous head to head poll conducted shortly before the primary, Raman led Bass by four percentage points, 32% to 28%.
The latest survey puts Raman 11 points ahead.
The poll was conducted online among 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters from September 15 through September 20 and has a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.
A Generational Divide
The survey also found major differences by age.
Among voters ages 18 to 29, Raman received 66%, compared with 4% for Bass. Among voters ages 30 to 39, Raman led 64% to 12%, while among those ages 40 to 49, she led 50% to 18%.
Among voters ages 50 to 64, Raman held a much narrower advantage, 35% to 33%. Bass led among voters 65 and older, 41% to 21%.
Bass Faces Unfavorable Ratings
The poll also found a substantial difference in favorability ratings.
Bass had a 63% unfavorable rating, compared with 28% favorable and 9% with no opinion. Raman was viewed favorably by 40%, unfavorably by 39%, while 21% had no opinion.
Among the issues voters identified as most important were fixing city infrastructure, moving homeless people indoors, crime and public safety, and building more affordable housing.
The new survey presents a race with two defining features: Raman has established a 39% to 28% lead and is showing strength across several regions of Los Angeles, while 33% of likely voters have yet to choose a candidate.
With ballots set to begin arriving in October, the poll captures a significant shift from the primary campaign while also showing that a substantial portion of the electorate remains undecided.
