Polls show undecided voters have sharply declined since March, but the remaining voters could still shape the outcome of one of California’s most closely watched races.
Today is Election Day. By tonight, many candidates will know whether they have won, lost, or secured a place on the ballot for the November general election.
After weeks of polling, particularly in the closely watched races for California governor and Los Angeles mayor, attention is turning to one of the most influential groups in any election: undecided voters. With margins remaining tight in several contests, these voters could ultimately determine who advances and who falls short.
In the Los Angeles mayoral race, the number of undecided voters has steadily declined, but they still represent a significant bloc capable of tipping the balance in favor of one candidate or another.
According to an Emerson College poll conducted in March 2026, approximately 51% of voters were undecided. A UCLA Luskin poll in April found that 40% remained undecided. By mid-May, that figure had fallen to 16%, and a late-May Berkeley poll showed it had dropped further to just 10%.
Why Were So Many Voters Undecided?
Pollsters and political analysts pointed to several factors.
A Fragmented Field of Candidates
Incumbent Karen Bass led most polls but faced relatively low approval ratings, while several challengers struggled with limited name recognition. Many voters expressed dissatisfaction with the status quo but had not yet identified a preferred alternative. The ability of candidates such as Nithya Raman or Spencer Pratt to attract undecided voters in the final days of the campaign could prove decisive.
A Race That Took Shape Late
Several major candidates entered the race or finalized their campaigns close to filing deadlines, leaving many voters with limited familiarity with their platforms and policy proposals.
Key Issues Without a Clear Consensus
Voters consistently cited homelessness, housing affordability, public safety, and recovery efforts following major events such as the Palisades fire as top concerns. However, no candidate emerged as the clear favorite to address those challenges.
Limited Voter Engagement Early On
Analysts also noted that many voters were not paying close attention during the early stages of the campaign. Undecided voters were particularly common among independents and younger voters.
As Election Day approached, debates, advertising campaigns, and increased media coverage helped many voters make their decisions, reducing the share of undecided voters from roughly 40–50% to about 10–16%.
Who Is an Undecided Voter?
An undecided voter is someone who is eligible to vote and intends to participate in an election but has not yet chosen a candidate or position when surveyed.
Pollsters typically classify respondents as undecided when they answer:
“I don’t know.”
“I’m not sure yet.”
“I haven’t decided.”
“None of the candidates.”
Or when they refuse to identify a preference despite saying they plan to vote.
Types of Undecided Voters
True Undecideds
Voters who are genuinely weighing multiple candidates and have not made a final choice.
Leaning Undecideds
Voters who say they are undecided but reveal a slight preference when asked a follow-up question.
Disengaged Voters
Individuals who have paid little attention to the race and therefore have not formed an opinion.
Reluctant Voters
People who have a preference but are unwilling to disclose it to pollsters.
Undecided voters are closely watched because they can determine the outcome of competitive races. However, they do not all break in the same direction. Some eventually choose a candidate, others support third-party options, and some never cast a ballot at all.
California Examples Where Undecided Voters Made a Difference
California Governor’s Race (2010)
Jerry Brown defeated Meg Whitman, but a substantial share of voters remained undecided throughout much of the campaign. Whitman spent a record amount on advertising, and polling margins tightened several times. In the final weeks, many undecided voters ultimately moved toward Brown, who won by approximately 13 points. Post-election analysis suggested that late-deciding voters favored the Democrat disproportionately.
California Recall Election (2021)
The effort to remove Governor Gavin Newsom saw a significant number of undecided voters during the summer campaign. In the weeks leading up to the election, national events, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan and rising COVID-19 cases, increased voter engagement among Democrats who had previously shown little interest. Newsom comfortably survived the recall despite earlier polls suggesting a much closer contest.
Los Angeles Mayoral Election (2022)
The race between Karen Bass and Rick Caruso remains one of the clearest recent examples in Los Angeles politics. Both candidates led various polls at different stages of the campaign, and a sizable percentage of voters remained undecided even in October. In the final weeks, many Democratic and independent voters moved toward Bass, who ultimately won by roughly 10 points. Analysts credited part of her victory to the behavior of late-deciding voters.
What Usually Happens to Undecided Voters?
One of the most important lessons from past California elections is that undecided voters rarely split evenly.
They often:
Move toward the better-known or less risky candidate.
Return to their traditional partisan preference as Election Day approaches.
Make decisions based on a dominant late-breaking issue, such as the economy, crime, immigration, or natural disasters.
That is why, in a close Los Angeles race, a remaining pool of 10% to 15% undecided voters can be large enough to change the outcome, even when one candidate appears to hold a modest lead in the polls.
Tonight, as votes are counted across California, the final decisions made by these voters may prove to be the difference between victory and defeat.
