Spencer Pratt may be out of the mayoral runoff, but the more than 200,000 voters who backed him are not. At some point, they could prove decisive in determining who becomes the next mayor of Los Angeles.
It is not an easy choice.
Pratt built his campaign around opposition: anti liberalism, anti socialism, and anti populism. Both Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman represent much of what he campaigned against.
So where will those voters go?
Bass did not attract conservative voters four years ago when she faced billionaire Rick Caruso and, in a surprising outcome, won the mayoralty. Polling showed Caruso holding a commanding lead among strongly conservative voters by roughly 50 points, while Bass led registered Democrats by about 40 points.
Conservatives represented a relatively small share of the Los Angeles electorate.
The November 2022 mayoral runoff drew about 930,000 votes, with Bass receiving 509,944 and Caruso 420,030.
Los Angeles County election data from 2022 shows Republicans accounted for roughly 20.4 percent of voters who participated in county elections that year. If that percentage was similar among Los Angeles city voters, it would translate to approximately 190,000 Republican voters, a figure remarkably close to the number of votes Pratt received.
The gap between Bass and Raman in this election stands at about five percentage points, or just over 45,000 votes. There is little doubt that Raman’s campaign will be the most eager to capture at least part of Pratt’s electorate.
This runoff has many Democrats on edge.
In a statement, Bass campaign strategist Doug Herman highlighted the mayor’s primary victory and argued that she would prevail in November “the same way” because she had built “an unprecedented citywide coalition that can actually deliver change for Los Angeles.”
He then turned his attention to Raman’s record, arguing that her votes and policies represent “a return to the failed status quo” by allowing long standing homeless encampments near schools while supporting efforts to reduce the size of the police force and, in his view, making the city less safe.
But Bass should not be too confident.
According to Politico, the contest between former allies Bass and Raman is raising concerns that a bruising five month campaign between a Democratic mayor and a sitting City Council member could do more to fracture the Democratic Party in the nation’s second largest city than anything Pratt accomplished during the primary.
This is far from the first Los Angeles mayoral race featuring two Democrats. In 2005, incumbent Mayor Jim Hahn lost to City Councilmember Antonio Villaraigosa. In 2013, City Councilmember Eric Garcetti defeated City Controller Wendy Greuel.
Yet neither race featured a candidate who had endorsed a rival before entering the contest at the last minute. Raman’s surprise decision to run sent shockwaves through Los Angeles political circles.
Mike Bonin, a former Los Angeles City Council member who knows both candidates well, admitted he feels conflicted.
“It is always hard when two people that you know and like are running against each other,” said Bonin, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs, who has endorsed both candidates in previous races but is staying neutral this time. “It is even harder within the smaller universe of City Hall. For the people who work inside the building, it is really difficult when you have to see both of them several times a week.”
Raman’s supporters, unsurprisingly, celebrated the result. Reclaiming the spotlight after Pratt dominated much of the media attention, she declared in a statement:
“An overwhelming majority of Angelenos just voted to replace the current mayor because they are tired of the status quo, and so am I.”
