California stands to lose more economic activity from the decline in new international-student enrollment than any other state, putting universities, local economies and the state’s future talent pipeline under new pressure.
California could lose an estimated $161.9 million in economic activity during the 2025-26 academic year as fewer international students enter U.S. colleges and universities, according to an analysis by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International.
That is the largest projected loss of any state.
Nationally, new international-student enrollment fell 17% in fall 2025, while total enrollment excluding students participating in Optional Practical Training, or OPT, declined 7%. NAFSA estimates the changes amount to more than $1.1 billion in lost economic activity nationally and nearly 23,000 fewer U.S. jobs.
For California, however, this is more than a higher-education story.
International students are part of the state’s university system, research pipeline and local economies. They rent housing, buy groceries and meals, use transportation, shop and spend money in communities surrounding campuses.
So the important question isn’t simply how many international students are coming to California.
It is what happens to California when fewer new students arrive—and whether that decline continues.
California remains the nation’s largest destination for international students.
During the 2024-25 academic year, 139,351 international students studied in California, according to the Institute of International Education’s Open Doors data. That was down 1.1% from 140,858 the previous year, but California still ranked No. 1 nationally.
The scale of California’s international-education economy is substantial. Open Doors estimates that international students generated about $6.25 billion in expenditures in California during 2024-25.
The state’s largest universities are deeply connected to that population.
In 2024-25, USC hosted 17,884 international students, followed by UC Berkeley with 12,020, UCLA with 10,769, UC San Diego with 10,545 and UC Irvine with 7,638.
That concentration helps explain why California has the largest projected economic loss when the national pipeline weakens.
NAFSA estimates California’s 2025-26 loss at $161.9 million, compared with $152.5 million for New York and $92.1 million for Massachusetts.
The 17% decline needs some explanation
One of the easiest ways to misunderstand this story is to hear “international student enrollment is falling” and assume that international students are simply leaving the United States.
The data show something more complicated.
The sharpest decline is occurring among new international students entering U.S. higher education.
Open Doors reported that 277,118 new international students enrolled at U.S. colleges and universities for the first time during 2024-25, a 7% decline from the previous year. At the same time, the overall international-student population reached 1,177,766, a 5% increase.
Then came the much steeper fall reported for fall 2025: new international enrollment declined 17%.
That distinction matters.
The United States can have a large population of international students and graduates already here while simultaneously becoming less successful at attracting the next group.
In other words, this is partly a pipeline problem.
Fewer new students are entering the system.
Graduate enrollment is where the warning gets louder
The decline isn’t evenly distributed across academic levels.
NAFSA’s Fall 2025 analysis found that international graduate enrollment declined 12%, while non-degree enrollment fell 16%. Undergraduate enrollment, meanwhile, increased 2%.
That is particularly important for California because international students are heavily represented in graduate education and STEM fields.
Open Doors reported 488,481 international graduate students nationally in 2024-25. Overall, 57% of international students studied STEM fields, including 26% in mathematics and computer science and 18% in engineering.
That means the enrollment trend isn’t only about classrooms and tuition.
It potentially affects the pipeline feeding universities, laboratories, research programs and industries that depend on highly educated workers.
For California—a state whose economy depends heavily on technology, research, health care and advanced industries—that makes the international-student pipeline worth watching.
OPT shows why the story isn’t simply about students leaving
There is another important number moving in the opposite direction.
The number of international students participating in Optional Practical Training, or OPT, increased 21% to 294,253 in 2024-25, according to Open Doors.
NAFSA’s Fall 2025 analysis also found OPT enrollment increased 14%.
OPT allows eligible international students to gain practical work experience in the United States after or during their studies, depending on the applicable rules.
That creates an important distinction:
The number of new students coming into the system is falling, while the number of international graduates participating in OPT is growing.
So the data do not support a simple “international students are disappearing” narrative.
Instead, the United States is experiencing a changing international-education pipeline.
That matters for California because the students who arrive today can become tomorrow’s researchers, engineers, health professionals, entrepreneurs and workers.
California’s university finances make the timing especially important
The enrollment decline arrives as California’s public universities are already navigating difficult financial and enrollment decisions.
The state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office says California has directed the University of California to reduce nonresident undergraduate enrollment at UC Berkeley, UCLA and UC San Diego by a combined 902 full-time-equivalent students annually, replacing those students with California residents. The policy is intended to continue through 2026-27.
The policy reflects a legitimate California priority: highly competitive public universities should provide more opportunities to California residents.
But nonresident enrollment also has financial implications.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office notes that UC charges nonresident supplemental tuition in addition to the tuition paid by all undergraduates, and the system has historically relied on higher nonresident charges as an important source of revenue.
International students are only one category of nonresident students, so the NAFSA estimate should not be interpreted as $161.9 million in lost UC tuition.
But the broader policy environment is important.
California is simultaneously trying to:
- expand opportunities for California residents;
- manage university budgets;
- maintain research and graduate programs;
- attract international talent; and
- respond to changing international enrollment patterns.
Those goals don’t necessarily conflict, but balancing them is becoming more complicated.
The economic impact reaches beyond the campus
The $161.9 million estimate is an estimate of economic activity, not simply university tuition revenue.
International students spend money while they live and study in California.
That spending can flow into housing, food, transportation, retail, entertainment and other services.
The effect is particularly relevant in communities surrounding large universities.
A student who doesn’t arrive may mean one fewer apartment rental, one fewer restaurant customer, one fewer transit rider or one fewer consumer buying goods locally.
That does not mean every business will experience a measurable loss, and NAFSA’s statewide estimate does not tell us exactly how the projected $161.9 million is distributed among California communities.
But the scale of the statewide estimate establishes that the issue extends beyond university admissions offices.
It reaches the broader economy.
For California households already watching their finances closely, the state’s economic exposure is another reason to pay attention. Parriva’s earlier guide on preparing for economic uncertainty in California’s Latino community provides additional context on how economic changes can affect household budgets, jobs and financial stability.
The Los Angeles region is home to two of the country’s largest hosts of international students.
USC hosted 17,884 international students in 2024-25, while UCLA hosted 10,769, according to Open Doors.
That makes the issue particularly relevant to Los Angeles communities.
The economic connections extend beyond the university itself.
International students can affect demand for housing, restaurants, transportation, retail and other services near major campuses. Their presence also contributes to the cultural and professional networks that make Los Angeles an international city.
But the available statewide data do not allow us to say that Los Angeles will experience a specific dollar loss from the national enrollment decline.
That is an important limitation.
Parriva should distinguish between what the data establish and what remains unknown.
What about Latino and Latin American students?
There is a legitimate Latin American dimension to this story—but the evidence does not support claiming that Latino students are driving the decline.
Open Doors shows that Latin American countries remain important sources of international students.
In 2024-25, the United States hosted more than 10,000 students from Colombia and more than 5,600 from Peru, while Mexico and Brazil were also significant sending countries. Colombia and Peru were among the countries whose international-student totals reached record highs that year.
That makes Latin America relevant to the broader international-education story.
But the publicly available Fall 2025 data do not yet establish how California’s 17% decline in new international enrollment breaks down by Latin American country of origin.
That is an important unanswered question.
It is also an opportunity for further reporting: Are Latin American students experiencing the same enrollment decline as students from other regions, or are their patterns different?
Until that data is available, Parriva should avoid turning a legitimate Latino audience interest into an unsupported claim.
NAFSA points to several factors surrounding the decline, including visa processing and policy uncertainty, and has advocated for changes affecting international students and graduates.
But there is an important journalistic distinction.
The 17% decline is an observed enrollment result.
The exact contribution of individual visa policies, processing delays, immigration policies, economic conditions and other factors requires additional evidence.
NAFSA is also an advocacy organization representing international educators, so its interpretation of the causes should be presented as such.
The strongest evidence-based conclusion is simpler:
New international enrollment declined sharply in fall 2025, and California is projected to experience the largest state-level economic impact.
What California families should watch next
The most important question now is whether the decline is temporary or becomes a longer-term trend.
If international enrollment rebounds, the projected economic effect could diminish.
If fewer new students continue entering U.S. universities, California’s exposure could grow.
The next data releases should help answer several questions:
- Are new international students continuing to decline?
- Which California universities are most affected?
- Are graduate programs experiencing larger losses?
- Which countries are sending fewer students?
- Are Latin American students following the national trend?
- Is OPT continuing to grow?
- What does the change mean for university finances and research programs?
- Which California communities are experiencing measurable economic effects?
Those questions matter because international education is not simply an immigration issue or a university issue.
It sits at the intersection of education, jobs, immigration, research and the California economy.
California remains the nation’s largest destination for international students, with 139,351 international students and an estimated $6.25 billion in international-student expenditures in 2024-25.
Now the state faces the largest projected economic impact from the national decline in new international enrollment: $161.9 million for 2025-26, according to NAFSA.
That does not mean California’s economy will suddenly lose $161.9 million, nor does it mean international students are simply leaving the country.
It means the state’s enormous international-education ecosystem is facing a measurable change in the flow of new students.
For California, the bigger question is what happens next.
Because when fewer international students enter the pipeline, the consequences can eventually reach beyond campus gates—to universities, research programs, local businesses and the workforce California will need in the years ahead.
