Juan Carlos Valencia González, known as “El 03” or “R-3,” is identified as the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), according to the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center’s (NCTC) Counterterrorism Guide.
Security experts interviewed indicate that the rise of Oseguera Cervantes’ stepson could trigger an escalation of violence to demonstrate his new authority; however, the World Cup has, for the moment, contained such actions.
According to David Saucedo, a public security expert, Valencia González’s succession to “El Mencho” would imply a continuation of the cartel’s extreme violence and militaristic control methods. “He’s a junior drug lord,” says Saucedo, so his initial plan is to project “fierceness, recklessness, and audacity” through high-impact events.
The State Department’s wanted poster identifies Juan Carlos Valencia as responsible for the manufacture, transport, and distribution of tons of narcotics, as well as the organization of numerous violent crimes.
Furthermore, according to the expert consulted, Valencia’s main associates within the organization, Hugo Gonzalo Gaitán, alias “El Sapo” (The Toad), and Ricardo Ruíz Velasco, alias “El Doble R” (The Double R), are “shock troops, hardliners.”
Despite the possibility of an escalation of violence, only 25 intentional homicides were recorded in the country last Monday, July 6. The lowest figure in the last eight years. Regarding this, Saucedo indicates that the country is currently experiencing “a kind of World Cup truce.”
The security consultant also describes how the CJNG and other cartels have reduced their crimes “taking advantage of the World Cup” to focus on other offenses such as sex tourism, real estate fraud, extortion, and the sale of high-end drugs, thereby generating profits. However, he emphasizes that an increase in violence could occur after the World Cup concludes.
Public policy expert Andrés Sumano agrees with the restraint and self-control shown by organized crime regarding high-impact crimes in the context of the World Cup. He adds that, with international attention focused on them, generating waves of violence “would provoke a strong response from the Mexican and U.S. governments.”
