Early polling reveals Latino voters remain largely undecided, giving them unprecedented influence over California’s crowded 2026 governor’s primary and potential policy outcomes.
With California’s 2026 governor’s race beginning to take shape, early polling suggests Latino voters — the state’s largest demographic group — could play a decisive role in determining which candidates advance from the crowded primary field.
Recent polling shows an unsettled electorate, with a large share of Latino voters still undecided and candidates from both parties competing for attention on issues like housing affordability, public safety, and economic opportunity.
According to a March 2026 survey conducted by David Binder Research, Chad Bianco currently leads among Latino voters with 20% support. Other candidates trail in single digits, including Eric Swalwell at 9%, Xavier Becerra at 8%, and Katie Porter at 6%.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate Steve Hilton and Democratic entrepreneur Tom Steyer each register about 6% and 5%, respectively, while former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa holds roughly 4% support among Latino voters.
A Large Share of Latino Voters Still Undecided
The most striking finding from the survey is the number of voters still making up their minds. More than one-third of Latino respondents — roughly 34% — say they remain undecided. Among Latino Democrats, that figure climbs to about 43%.
Political analysts say that uncertainty reflects a shift in how Latino voters are approaching statewide elections.
“Latino voters in California are increasingly evaluating candidates based on policy priorities like cost of living, housing, and education rather than identity alone,” said Mark DiCamillo, former director of the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, which frequently studies California voter trends.
Republican Candidates Show Early Consolidation
The early polling also suggests that Republican voters are consolidating more quickly behind fewer candidates. Among Latino Republicans, Bianco holds a significant lead over Hilton.
That dynamic could matter in California’s “top-two” primary system, where all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party and only the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election.
Political observers note that the Democratic field remains highly fragmented, with many candidates competing for similar blocs of voters.
A Crowded Field Raises Strategic Concerns
Several high-profile Latino Democrats — including Becerra and Villaraigosa — are competing for support in the same electorate, raising concerns among party strategists that the vote could splinter.
California’s election structure means that even in a state dominated by Democratic voters, a divided field could create an opening for two Republicans to advance to the November ballot.
Polling from Emerson College Polling and the Public Policy Institute of California shows a tight overall race statewide. Hilton leads some surveys with between 14% and 17% support, followed closely by Swalwell, Bianco, and Porter — each clustered within a few percentage points.
Up to 30% of likely voters statewide remain undecided.
The Issues Driving Latino Voters
Policy priorities appear to be shaping the race more than candidate background.
Research from the Public Policy Institute of California consistently shows that Latino voters rank housing affordability, economic stability, and public safety among their top concerns.
For candidates hoping to win the governor’s office in 2026, the message from early polling is clear: the race remains wide open, and Latino voters — many still weighing their options — could ultimately determine who leads California next.
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