New polling data shows Governor Gavin Newsom with an early advantage among California Democrats, highlighting the growing influence of Latino voters in shaping statewide and national politics.
A new survey from the University of California, Berkeley’s Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research, conducted in partnership with POLITICO, suggests that Gavin Newsom has opened an early advantage over Kamala Harris among California Democrats in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary.
The March 2026 poll shows Newsom with 28% support compared with Harris at 14% among registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in California. While the race remains years away, the results offer an early snapshot of the political landscape in the nation’s largest Democratic state.
Researchers at the Berkeley-based polling center conducted interviews in both English and Spanish, an approach designed to better capture the views of California’s diverse electorate. Latinos now represent the largest voting-age population in the state, according to data from the Public Policy Institute of California, making their political preferences a key factor in any statewide or national Democratic contest.
Poll director Jack Citrin has previously noted that Latino voters are not a monolithic bloc and that their political attitudes are evolving.
“Latino voters are increasingly persuadable and engaged on a range of issues—from cost of living to education and economic opportunity,” Citrin said in prior polling analysis. “That makes them an especially important constituency in competitive primaries.”
A Strong Foundation for Newsom
The new survey builds on earlier polling from the same research center that found about 65% of Latino voters in California approved of Newsom’s job performance as governor in late 2025. Political analysts say that level of approval provides a strong base if the governor ultimately enters a national race.
At the same time, previous surveys suggested mixed enthusiasm for potential Democratic rivals, including Harris, despite her historic role as the first woman, Black American, and South Asian American to serve as vice president.
Latino Voters Increasingly Decisive
Experts say demographic trends make the Latino vote central to the future of Democratic politics in California and nationally.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Latinos account for nearly 40% of California’s population, and their share of the electorate continues to grow.
For campaigns looking toward 2028, the lesson may be clear: winning the White House could begin with winning the trust of California’s increasingly influential Latino voters.
While the race remains speculative, the poll underscores a broader reality—the road to the Democratic nomination may run through California, and through its Latino electorate.
