Polls show Karen Bass with a clear advantage among Latino voters, but historically low turnout in Latino communities could reshape the race.
Latinos appear to favor Karen Bass, but the big question is whether they will vote
Roughly one third of registered Latino voters turned out in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election, an extremely low figure compared to White, Black, and Asian voters. Overall, Latinos accounted for only 19% of ballots cast.
Those numbers have raised alarm bells because of the crucial role Latino voters could play in what is expected to be a close election.
For now, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass appears to hold a strong advantage over the rest of the field, according to several polls. A survey by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, conducted with the Los Angeles Times, found Bass leading among Latino voters with 29% support. Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt followed with 16%, community organizer Rae Huang had 14%, and Councilmember Nithya Raman received 9%. Tech entrepreneur Adam Miller garnered 3%.
A separate poll released in April by the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs also showed Bass with a substantial lead.
“I think she has an opportunity to solidify the Latino vote with a strong primary performance,” Matt Barreto, a professor of political science and Chicana/o studies at UCLA, told the Los Angeles Times. “This is hers for the taking.”
Still, one major question remains: how many Latino voters will actually show up at the polls. So far, a large share of Latino voters remain undecided, which may reflect either uncertainty about the candidates or a lack of interest in participating altogether.
The polls suggest there is still significant room for any candidate to gain support among Latino voters. As the primary enters its final stretch, campaigns are intensifying their outreach efforts.
In general, voter turnout in Los Angeles tends to be low during primary elections, especially in Latino communities, Barreto said. That means candidates seeking Latino support need sustained organizing efforts and a constant presence in Latino neighborhoods.
Nearly one million Angelenos voted in the most recent mayoral election, a significant increase from the approximately 401,000 voters who cast ballots in 2013, when Eric Garcetti was first elected mayor. However, while overall turnout increased across every demographic group, the Latino share of the electorate barely changed.
White voters make up less than 30% of the city’s population, yet they represented nearly 60% of those who voted. Latinos account for roughly half of Los Angeles’ population and about 35% of eligible voters, but they made up less than a quarter of actual voters, according to data from Political Data Inc.
Latinos avoid voting for many of the same reasons affecting the broader electorate: feeling that candidates do not represent their interests or believing their vote will not make a difference.
But several additional factors disproportionately affect Latino participation, including a younger electorate, immigration status, greater distrust in political institutions, and a limited history of voting in the United States.
“Sometimes the case for voting is harder to make with some Latino voters because of the lack of representation and the history of marginalization,” said Mindy Romero, director of USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy, in remarks to the Los Angeles Times. “There is generally less outreach to Latino communities and, when there is outreach, it is not always effective.”
Some strategists believe Latino turnout could still surge if campaigns generate enough energy and enthusiasm around the race.
“You could see historic Latino turnout in Los Angeles because of the energy surrounding this election,” said Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo, who supports Antonio Villaraigosa. “The question for the candidates is who is best positioned to ride that wave.”
In March, Bass launched the initiative “Latinos con Bass” in Lincoln Park. The event featured State Senator María Elena Durazo, Angélica Salas, president of CHIRLA Action Fund, and Nilza Serrano, president of the Avance Democratic Club.
In meetings with Latino leaders and in television ads, Bass has highlighted her opposition to immigration raids carried out in Los Angeles during the Trump administration.
“She stood with the community during some of the most difficult moments for Los Angeles, when ICE and Border Patrol agents were in our streets,” Salas said. “She fought to keep our families together.”
Spencer Pratt has also launched his own initiative, “Latinos for Pratt,” led by Adrian E. Alvarez, a Cuban American born in Miami who is openly aligned with the Republican Party.
In recent days, rumors have circulated that President Donald Trump may soon endorse Pratt. That possibility raises questions because of Trump’s low approval ratings among many Latino voters, particularly due to the impact of immigration policies and federal raids on immigrant communities. Some analysts believe such an endorsement could hurt Pratt more than help him.
Meanwhile, Councilmember Nithya Raman has also stepped up her outreach efforts in Latino neighborhoods in hopes of winning over part of the Latino electorate.
For Latinos to become a true political force in Los Angeles, they will need to turn out to vote in large numbers. The city’s political agenda and priorities in the coming years may depend on whether they do.
