A new report from UC Merced Community and Labor Center shows California’s economy just took a big hit – the likes of which has not been seen since the COVID-19 pandemic.
But this economic impact is not from a virus, but likely fear, as the state’s workforce grapples with intensified immigration raids.
The report, released Tuesday, showed the state lost over 3% of its private workforce in four weeks and described the loss as a sudden and rare drop not seen outside of major economic crises.
Between May 11 and June 8, UC Merced researchers tracked a 3.1% decline in the number of Californians reporting private sector work.
“In California, only two historical cases can compare with the loss of work that just occurred from May to June 2025: the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic,” the report says..
While immigration officials have not released detailed accounts of where the raids occurred, the period aligns with widely reported federal enforcement actions in key agricultural and urban centers across California, particularly in Los Angeles.
According to the analysis, no comparable decline in employment was observed in other U.S. states during the same time period.
National employment among male citizens increased by 1%. In contrast, employment among noncitizens and women remained essentially unchanged elsewhere, strengthening the case that California’s drop was state-specific and enforcement-related, the report states.
Another recent study by UC Merced and the Bay Area Council Economic Institute warned that mass deportations could drain more than $275 billion from California’s economy.
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