While the overall average spending estimate is unchanged from last year, there have been notable shifts by income group. Americans in households earning less than $50,000 now expect to spend $651 on holiday gifts, down more than $100 from last year’s $776. Meanwhile, those in households earning $100,000 or more predict spending $1,479, up from $1,403. Middle-income earners project spending $847, which is more similar to their forecast last year of $902.
Consumers’ perceptions of how their spending will change mirror these patterns. Just 18% of lower-income Americans say they will spend more this year, down from 28% last year. Half now say they’ll spend about the same, up 10 percentage points, while 30% anticipate spending less, similar to 28% a year ago.
Among higher-income Americans, 23% now say they plan to spend more, up slightly from 18%, while middle-income earners’ responses have held steady.
Spending Intentions Positive, but Not Guaranteed
Gallup’s October reading of Americans’ holiday spending plans often predicts the strength of current retail performance in November and December.
In years when the average October spending estimate declined — such as 2008, 2009, 2016 and 2018 — holiday sales growth was typically below the long-term average of 3.9% or declined outright, as in 2008. (In the first year of the pandemic, 2020, a sharp decline in intended spending in October did not result in low sales growth, but consumers’ November forecast was more aligned.)
Conversely, in years when October projections were stable (as in 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2023) or increased (in 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2024), holiday retail sales were generally average or better.
Based on Gallup modeling of the historical relationship between October forecasts and actual retail results, the stability in this year’s spending estimate suggests 2025 holiday sales may rise by 4% to 5%.
