A joint Mexico–UN report estimates that opium poppy cultivation fell nearly 28% in 2023–2024 and examines how fentanyl, crop eradication and severe weather may have contributed.
Mexico’s estimated opium poppy cultivation fell nearly 28% in the 2023–2024 growing cycle, according to a report released November 13 by the Mexican government and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. The estimated area planted dropped from 11,095 hectares to 8,028, falling below the 9,790 hectares recorded in 2021–2022. Potential production of dry opium gum, the raw material used to make heroin, fell more sharply: from about 166 to 106 metric tons, a decline of 36.5%. The report estimates how much the crop could produce; actual output was not measured. inacipe.fgr.org.mx
The shift toward synthetic opioids such as fentanyl may help explain why growing poppies became less attractive. The study points to the lower costs and simpler logistics of synthetic drugs, alongside crop eradication, rural development programs and severe weather. The report also cites an evaluation of Mexico’s Sembrando Vida program, which found that support for legal farming helped offset lost income for some families who stopped growing poppies. The available figures do not show how much each factor contributed to the national decline.
Researchers used satellite images, aerial photography and field checks in historically monitored areas of Guerrero, Nayarit, Sinaloa, Chihuahua and Durango. Drought and damage from Hurricane Otis affected plots and hampered fieldwork in Guerrero. Changes in geographic coverage and statistical methods also limit comparisons between cycles. Separately, federal authorities reported destroying 9,087 hectares of poppies in calendar year 2024, down from 10,167 in 2023. That eradication total measures a different period and activity from the cultivation estimate. inacipe.fgr.org.mx
