Texas and several other states are seeing a rush of early voters ahead of November 3. California’s ballot returns are nearly 25% below where they stood at the same point in 2022.
Voters across the country are heading to the polls early, and in some states, they’re showing up in numbers not seen during the last midterm election.
Texas is one of them. Early voting there has jumped 74% compared with 2022. Kansas has more than doubled its total.
But California is moving in the opposite direction.
By October 20, about 1.67 million Californians had returned their ballots, compared with 2.22 million at the same point before the 2022 midterms.
That’s roughly 551,000 fewer ballots, a drop of nearly 25%, according to Civiq’s California ballot-return data.
Does that mean Californians are less interested in this election?
Not necessarily. Many voters still have their ballots at home, and there’s time to return them before November 3.
But the difference between California and several other states is striking.
Early voting is picking up across the country
More than 13 million Americans had already voted early or by mail as of October 20, according to an Associated Press analysis.
The biggest increases are happening in several states with closely watched U.S. Senate races.
Texas is up 74% compared with the same point in 2022. Kansas has more than doubled its early-voting total. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio have each seen increases of more than 30%.
But not every state is seeing that kind of activity.
Michigan and Georgia are running at about the same pace as four years ago. Iowa is behind.
The numbers show how differently voters are approaching this election, even as both parties compete for control of Congress.
And there’s another important distinction: More early votes don’t necessarily mean more votes for either political party. Ballot-return figures tell us how many people have voted, not which candidates they chose.
In Texas, for example, Latino voters are an important part of the midterm electorate, but the state’s overall increase doesn’t tell us how many of those early ballots came from Latino voters.
Why California’s slower start may not tell the whole story
California makes voting by mail available to every active registered voter.
People can fill out their ballots at home, mail them back, drop them off at an official collection box or vote in person.
That gives voters more flexibility, but it also means ballots don’t all come back at the same time.
Some people vote as soon as their ballots arrive. Others wait until they’ve had time to review the candidates and ballot measures. Many don’t return their ballots until the final days.
So while California’s early returns are running well behind 2022, that doesn’t mean the same percentage of voters will stay home.
It also matters when election offices receive and report ballots. A ballot mailed but not yet processed may not appear in the latest numbers.
The 25% decline is real in the figures reported so far. Whether it points to lower voter participation or simply a slower pace of ballot returns is something we won’t know until more votes are counted.
What about Latino voters in California?
Latino voters make up an important part of California’s electorate, especially in Los Angeles and other parts of Southern California.
According to Civiq’s estimates, approximately 324,899 Hispanic voters had returned ballots by October 20, representing about 19.5% of the statewide early-ballot total.
But these are estimates, not official counts based on voters identifying their ethnicity.
And without comparable Latino-specific figures from 2022, there’s no reliable way to say whether Latino early voting has increased or declined.
It’s also important not to treat Latino voters as one political group. They have different priorities, experiences and political views, including concerns about the economy, immigration and other issues shaping the 2026 midterms.
For now, California’s overall decline tells us something about when ballots are being returned. It doesn’t establish how Latino turnout will compare with previous elections.
Los Angeles voters still have time to cast their ballots
For Los Angeles County residents who haven’t voted, there are several options before Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.
Official ballot drop boxes are already available throughout the county.
In-person voting begins October 24 at selected vote centers, with more locations opening October 31.
Voters can find nearby locations and check voting hours through LA Vote’s election information page.
If you’re mailing your ballot, California election officials recommend doing so at least seven days before Election Day to help ensure it receives a timely postmark. Make sure the return envelope is signed and dated.
You can also check whether your ballot has been received through California’s Where’s My Ballot? tracking service.
With Election Day approaching, California’s early-voting numbers could change quickly.
For now, voters in several states are casting ballots much faster than they did four years ago. California is taking longer.
The question is whether those ballots will arrive in the final days or whether fewer Californians will ultimately vote.
