Toy makers and stores are freezing holiday orders, predicting shortages and higher prices.

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President Trump’s China tariffs are threatening Christmas.

Toy makers, children’s shops and specialty retailers are pausing orders for the winter holidays as the import taxes cascade through supply chains. Factories in China produce nearly 80 percent of all toys and 90 percent of Christmas goods sold in America.

The production of toys, Christmas trees and decorations is usually in full swing by now. It takes four to five months to manufacture, package and ship products to the United States.

Mr. Trump’s 145 percent tariffs have caused a drastic markup in costs for American companies. Most of the entrepreneurs that have shared their plans with The New York Times have not yet canceled their orders. They hope that the president will back away from the tariff brinkmanship.

But the alarm in the industry is palpable, with the companies predicting product shortages and higher prices. Some business owners, citing how crucial holiday sales are to their bottom lines, are consulting bankruptcy lawyers.

“We have a frozen supply chain that is putting Christmas at risk,” said Greg Ahearn, chief executive of the Toy Association, a U.S. industry group representing 850 toy manufacturers. “If we don’t start production soon, there’s a high probability of a toy shortage this holiday season.”