Recent NFAP research shows reducing immigrant labor worsens shortages, raises costs, and disproportionately affects Latino workers and essential services.
Recent research from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) challenges the widespread political narrative that reducing immigration creates more opportunities for U.S.-born workers. Instead, analyses show that declines in foreign-born labor can worsen labor shortages and increase costs, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on immigrant labor.
NFAP’s 2025 and 2026 analyses reveal several consistent trends:
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No Job Gains for U.S.-Born Workers: When immigrant workers leave the workforce, native-born employees do not automatically fill those roles, contradicting common claims that fewer immigrants boost employment for Americans.
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Rising Labor Shortages: Industries such as healthcare, home care, and agriculture face intensified staffing gaps as immigration declines. NFAP senior fellow Mark Regets notes that “a severe drop in immigrant workers does not translate into more opportunities for U.S.-born employees—it creates real shortages that affect essential services.”
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Economic Consequences: Tightened immigration restrictions and deportation campaigns can increase costs for businesses and reduce supply in critical industries, rather than protect native workers.
NFAP’s September 2025 report illustrates the broader economic impact. For example, in home healthcare and agricultural sectors, labor shortages triggered by declining immigrant participation have resulted in delayed services, higher wages for remaining workers, and increased operational costs for employers. These effects ripple through local economies, disproportionately affecting Latino communities that both contribute significantly to the workforce and rely on affordable services.
Context and Policy Implications
The NFAP findings align with broader labor market research, including studies cited by the Economic Policy Institute, which emphasizes the role of immigrant labor in sustaining essential sectors. By overlooking these dynamics, policymakers risk implementing measures that fail to achieve the intended economic protection for U.S.-born workers while undermining industries crucial to daily life.
For Latino workers and families, these trends have immediate consequences. Reduced immigrant labor can increase competition for caregiving roles, limit access to essential services, and drive up costs for households already managing tight budgets. Experts suggest that rather than restricting immigration, strategies to support both immigrant and U.S.-born workers—through training programs, fair wages, and workplace protections—can better stabilize the labor market.
As the debate over immigration policy continues, NFAP’s research provides a data-driven counterpoint to simplistic claims. Reducing immigrant labor does not automatically benefit U.S.-born employees; instead, it may exacerbate labor gaps, raise costs, and strain communities across the country.
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