From Inflation to Labor Shortages: What’s Keeping Small Businesses Hopeful?

The Wall Street Journal says that tariffs are “crushing” small businesses. The Center for American Progress says the same thing. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce says that tariffs are having a “real and devastating impact on thousands of small businesses across the nation.” MSNBC says that tariff uncertainty is “killing” small businesses too. A mother and daughter who started a business in Austin say that President Trump’s tariffs are “killing” them. The New Republic says that Trump’s tariffs are “already destroying” small businesses.

Immigration is, apparently, doing damage as well. Newsweek’s immigration reporter Billal Rahman says that, rather than tariffs, it’s actually “mass deportations” that are what’s killing small businesses.

“In Houston, one-third of the construction workforce are undocumented immigrants,” he writes. “Deporting these workers would affect the Houston GDP by more than $50 billion over the next 10 years. The economic side effects could be significant for Texas cities that rely heavily on immigrant labor, according to business leaders.”

Let’s not forget healthcare. A Forbes contributor says that Obamacare is killing small businesses.

And that’s not all! A LinkedIn piece says it’s inflation that’s “killing” small business. Others think it’s Amazon. One pundit suggests it’s merely “big business thinking” that’s killing them.

And a writer at Grist believes it’s climate change that’s killing small businesses. “Even during the best of times keeping shops solvent can be a struggle,” says the author. “But when climate-driven disasters strike, the impact on mom-and-pops can be particularly devastating — and prolonged.” All these things — and many others — are apparently “killing” small businesses. And yet the latest Small Business Optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Businesses found that small business optimism actually improved this month and is running above the average level it’s been tracking for 52 years.

“In August, there was a notable improvement in overall business health,” the NFIB reported. “When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 14 percent reported excellent (up 1 point), and 54 percent reported it as good (up 2 points). Twenty-seven percent reported the health of their business as fair (down 4 points), and 4 percent reported poor (unchanged).”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said job additions were overstated by a million last year. Meanwhile, private-sector employment increased by 54,000 jobs in August and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year, according to the August ADP National Employment Report produced by ADP Research. A survey published within the past month from website provider GoDaddy found that 72 percent of their small business respondents expected their own revenues to increase or remain stable over the next six months, with 45 percent believing the broader U.S. economy will hold steady or improve in that same period.