“I’m Guadalupan, but not Catholic,” says one believer.
“I don’t go to Mass, but I believe in the Virgin,” says another.
“My faith goes beyond the Vatican,” adds a third.
New data reveals shifting religious identities in Mexico—but devotion to Our Lady of Guadalupe remains one of the nation’s strongest cultural forces.
Across Mexico and far beyond its borders, devotion to Our Lady of Guadalupe continues to grow, strengthening her place as one of the most powerful cultural and spiritual symbols in the Mexican imagination. Faith in the Virgin knows no color or social class; it appeals to a sense of shared hope, suffering, and identity. For many, she is simply the Mother of Mexico—a figure who listens, understands, and protects.
The legendary Mexican boxer Raúl “Ratón” Macías captured this sentiment bluntly: “I owe everything to my manager and to Our Lady of Guadalupe.” Millions echo that gratitude every year as they walk—sometimes for days—to the Basilica of Guadalupe to ask for help or give thanks. In recent years, her image has also traveled with migrants, who invoked her as a symbol of resilience and protection amid Donald Trump’s anti-immigration policies.
According to Mexico’s 2020 Census, the country has 90,224,559 Catholics. Yet over the last decade, Catholic affiliation has declined from 82.7% to 77.7%, while Protestant and Evangelical groups have risen from 7.5% to 11.2%, and the number of people without religion nearly doubled, from 4.7% to 8.1%.
Researcher Miguel Ángel Cerón Ruiz of FES Acatlán notes that although Catholicism is losing followers, Protestantism—which generally rejects religious images such as that of the Virgin of Guadalupe—is steadily growing. This trend may imply a reduction in Guadalupan devotion. Still, a striking number of Mexicans identify themselves specifically as Guadalupans, which helps explain why the Basilica remains the second most visited Catholic shrine in the world, surpassed only by St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome.
This devotion has deep historical roots. What began as a simple adobe hermitage evolved into a parish, then a collegiate church, and finally received the title of basilica in 1904. Whether one believes in the apparitions of 1531 or not, the Virgin of Guadalupe has become inseparable from Mexican identity. “Wherever we are in the world, she identifies us,” explains the historian and specialist in New Spain and Paleography. Despite the lack of conclusive documentary evidence of the apparitions, her presence has endured since the 16th century.
In ten years, the tradition will mark its 500th anniversary. The “dark-skinned Virgin” who appeared to Juan Diego on Tepeyac Hill has shaped Mexico’s history for nearly half a millennium—and scholars see no sign of her influence fading.
Before the pandemic, the number of visitors to the Basilica emerged during its feast days. Between December 1 and 12, 2019, more than 10.8 million pilgrims arrived, according to Mexico City authorities. In contrast, the sanctuary closed for the first time in its history in 2020 due to the health emergency. In 2021, it reopened with limited access and without public Masses or the traditional mañanitas.
Her devotion has also spread globally. In the 17th century, Jesuits carried their image throughout Latin America, Europe, and the Philippines. Remarkably, she is even the patron saint of Arsoli, a town in Italy.
According to Cerón Ruiz, scandals involving pedophilia, illicit enrichment, and political alliances have damaged the Catholic Church’s credibility and contributed to the loss of followers. Only time will determine whether these institutional crises will also diminish devotion to Our Lady of Guadalupe—or whether her spiritual and cultural significance will continue to stand apart from the institution itself.
