Newsom Surges Ahead in 2028 Democratic Nomination Contest

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A new Emerson College Polling national survey finds President Donald Trump with a 45% job approval rating, and 47% disapproval. Since last month, the President’s approval slipped one point, while his disapproval held at 47%.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary with 25% support, a 13-point increase from the Emerson June national poll. Sixteen percent support former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, 11% former Vice President Kamala Harris, 5% Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and 4% support Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, respectively.

“Governor Newsom’s support emerged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 (6% to 18%) an 18-point increase among voters over 70 (13% to 31%), and a 14-point increase among both Black (9% to 23%) and White (10% to 24%) voters,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted.

In the 2028 Republican presidential primary, over half (52%) of Republican voters support Vice President JD Vance, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 9%, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 7%.

In a hypothetical 2028 election matchup between Vice President Vance and Governor Newsom, the potential candidates are tied with 44% support, respectively. Twelve percent are undecided. In the July Emerson national poll, 45% supported Vance while 42% supported Newsom.

“Newsom’s recent gains are driven largely by younger voters 18-29: after splitting this group in June (39% to 38%), he now holds a clear lead, 45% to 28%,” Kimball said.