More workers expect to be unemployed in the coming months

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New survey data shows an elevated share of workers are looking for jobs alongside rising unemployment expectations in the months ahead.

Economic data suggests the job market is softening. Consumers’ expectations about the health of the labor market are following suit.

According to a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York of consumer labor market expectations, the share of workers who looked for a job in the last month rose to 28% in July. That is the largest share since 2014 and a nearly 10 percentage point jump from the same time a year ago.

That came alongside other indications that consumers felt less confident about job market opportunities. Among those with jobs, the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4% — the highest since the series began in 2014.

Consumers said they were less satisfied with compensation and promotion opportunities than in the same period a year ago.

Despite that gloomy outlook, workers still believe hiring demand exists, with rising probabilities of at least one job offer in the next four months.

Roughly 19% of respondents said they had received at least one job offer in the past four months, about the same as in July 2023.

California lost 222 big employers in 4 years, 3rd-most in the US