New Jersey was supposed to be last night’s tough race for Democrats.
An unpopular incumbent Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, combined with Trump’s 2024 over-performance, particularly with Hispanic voters, weighed heavily. Democrats whispered that the party’s nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, was running an underwhelming campaign and perhaps wasn’t ready for the limelight of a statewide race. History was also working against Democrats. After all, it’s been more than six decades since any political party has won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the Garden State.
None of it matters. Four years after Murphy squeaked by with a narrow victory over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, Sherrill defeated Ciattarelli by double digits, an outcome that was far from expected.
Sherrill’s victory offers a clear political path forward for Democrats, as does the apparent break for Democrats in Virginia. It’s the same one they used to great effect in 2018 and 2020: run against Donald Trump.
Sherrill’s focus throughout the campaign has been to link Ciattarelli to the top Republican in the White House, and it appears to have been an effective strategy. According to NBC News’ exit poll, Trump’s approval numbers in New Jersey matched those in the rest of the country, with 55% of voters disapproving of him and 43% giving him a positive mark.
Nearly two-thirds of New Jersey voters said they are angry or dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Sixty percent rated the economy good or poor. CNN’s exit polls showed New Jersey voters expressed a negative view of the Democratic Party by a 50% to 47% margin — and it didn’t hurt Sherrill, particularly when 91% of voters who disapproved of Trump voted for her. There was one person and party on the ballot Tuesday in New Jersey — and it was Donald Trump and the GOP.
Although Trump has made mass deportation the centerpiece of his second-term agenda, and concerns about immigration were considered one of the reasons for his over-performance in New Jersey, voters there believe his deportation efforts “have gone too far.” Voters were also more likely to say that the next governor should not cooperate with Trump on immigration enforcement.
