Latino Voters Turning Away from Trump, New Survey Reveals

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President Donald Trump’s approval is plummeting with Latino voters, a voting bloc Republicans are betting on as they fight to maintain their tenuous hold on the House next year, according to a new poll.

Trump’s favorability is underwater by 20 points with the demographic, according to a poll obtained by POLITICO and commissioned by the liberal-leaning Latino voter group Somos Votantes.

The shifts among subgroups paint an even starker picture for the GOP: Among men, Trump’s favorability fell from 52 percent in May to 47 percent in September. And with young voters — another segment of Trump’s 2024 base — the president’s approval dropped to 33 percent in September, from 43 percent in May.

“What began earlier this year with independents and women has really intensified and spread to basically every demographic subset of the Latino electorate, including groups that once leaned toward him like Latino men” said Melissa Morales, the group’s president, pointing to last quarter’s polling.

“This won’t automatically translate to support for Democrats, but there is a huge opportunity to turn what was a liability into a positive,” she added. “There is an opportunity here for Democrats to show an alternative.”

Few demographic groups are as coveted and changing as Latino voters, many of whom skew conservative in their social values ​​and aided the GOP in its takeover of Washington last year. But Democrats, who have been hemorrhaging voters, are hoping economic concerns during the first year of Trump’s second term will drive Latinos back into their camp. The fight for Latino voters is playing out in Texas, where much of the GOP-controlled state’s redrawn congressional map will rely on getting them to keep swinging for the GOP in House races.

Trump’s approval rating on the economy — a top issue for Latinos — also dropped significantly, with just 36 percent of those polled supporting Trump’s handling of it. Only 25 percent of independents gave Trump high marks on the economy.
Global Strategy Group conducted the national poll of 800 Latino voters from Aug. 26 to Sept. 4. It has a 3.5 percent margin of error.

Despite the sirens, Republicans remain bullish on holding onto Trump’s gains next year, pointing to recent polling that shows Latinos also do not harbor favorable views of former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, both high-profile Democrats from California. That poll — done by Fox News and released Friday — has a smaller split of Trump’s favorability, with 48 percent approving of him.

“Democrats are desperate to spin a false narrative about Hispanic voters, but the reality is simple: Republicans continue earning their trust while Democrats have been losing it for years,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella, who also called the Somos-sponsored survey a “junk poll” that “proves Democrats have no message, no leader, and no plan to stop Hispanic voters from moving toward Republicans.”

Pollster Rosa Mendoza said the survey captures a “distinct disconnect between what Hispanic and Latino voters want Congress and this administration to be focusing on, versus what they’re seeing them focused on.”

Republicans have long insisted Latino voters are fundamentally conservative, and previous cycles show that the group is steadily moving rightward.

Previous Democratic strategies have hinged on turning states in the South and West blue. But much to the chagrin of those strategists — who believed even Texas would flip in their favor — Trump recorded his widest victory yet in 2024, thanks in part to the significant swings among Latino voters.

Democrats are however confident that if Latino voters are turning against Trump, they will also turn from the GOP in next year’s midterms.

“Voters are really equating Republicans and Trump as one in the same,” Morales said.