As 2028 looms, California’s governor risks losing the state’s largest ethnic group with policies that put politics over people. The Latino Vote: A Critical Test in 2028
California Governor Gavin Newsom is rebranding himself politically — but his recent policy pivots have stirred concern, particularly within the Latino community that helped fuel his rise to power. As Newsom takes steps toward a possible 2028 presidential run, his move from progressive champion to centrist dealmaker may reshape his relationship with the state’s largest ethnic group.
From Progressive Ally to “Pragmatic Centrist”
Facing a $12 billion budget deficit and rising political pressure, Newsom has moved away from some of the liberal policies that once defined his leadership. Once seen as a progressive trailblazer — backing universal healthcare, sanctuary protections, and expansive climate legislation — Newsom is now talking tough on homelessness, signaling openness to restrictions on transgender athletes in sports, and proposing to limit access to Medi-Cal for new undocumented immigrants.
For many Latinos, especially undocumented workers and mixed-status families, these proposals feel like a betrayal.
“California has been a national model for immigrant inclusion,” said Maria Gómez, a policy advocate in Los Angeles. “Scaling back Medi-Cal access sends a message that Latino immigrant lives are only prioritized when the budget allows.”
While Newsom insists that “no state has done more for immigrants than California,” his latest proposal would deny new undocumented adults access to health coverage—a reversal from last year’s historic expansion that made Medi-Cal available to all low-income adults regardless of status.
Newsom also launched a plan this week urging cities to dismantle homeless encampments, an issue deeply affecting Latino communities where housing insecurity is high. Though some applaud his decisive tone — “No more excuses. It’s time to take back our streets,” he declared — advocates warn the approach criminalizes poverty rather than solving it.
“He’s sounding more like a Fox News mayor than a California governor,” said Carlos Meza, a community organizer in San Jose. “Latino families want solutions, not scapegoats.”
His resistance to defunding the police and willingness to engage with conservative voices like Steve Bannon and Charlie Kirk on his podcast further complicate his messaging, especially among younger, progressive Latino voters.
Latinos make up nearly 40% of California’s population and a growing share of national voters. While Newsom’s national strategy — including billboard campaigns targeting Republicans and anti-abortion messaging — may boost his centrist image, it risks alienating the grassroots Latino base that Democrats need to win in key swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and Texas.
“Latinos are not a monolith,” said Luis Alvarado, a Republican strategist who tracks Latino trends. “But many feel let down when politicians promise inclusion and then pull back when the political winds change.”
Progressive critics, including Norman Solomon of RootsAction, have accused Newsom of sacrificing working-class immigrants for political gain: “He’s stepping on the very communities that carried him to the governor’s mansion.”
Still, centrist voices like Matt Bennett of Third Way argue that Democrats win by nominating moderates. “We flirt with the liberal, but we marry the moderate,” he said, pointing to Clinton, Obama, and Biden as evidence that electability still trumps ideology.
Looking Ahead
Newsom’s team is clearly laying the groundwork for a national run. His PAC is active, his podcast draws headlines, and he’s investing in national media outreach. But whether Latinos — in California and across the U.S. — will follow him on this new path remains an open question.
“2028 is still far,” said Adriana Rivas, a Democratic strategist in Fresno. “But Latino voters have long memories. If Newsom wants their support again, he’ll need more than slogans. He’ll need to show up — and deliver.”
