From the far reaches of South Texas to the dense urban enclaves of northern New Jersey, Republicans made significant gains with working-class Latino voters last year.
The upcoming midterm elections will test the durability of that rightward shift — and whether it’s transferable to down-ballot Republicans running in a time of economic turbulence without Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.
In addition to Texas and New Jersey, Republicans have their sights on a handful of heavily Hispanic congressional districts in California.
They range from a race in the San Joaquin Valley that is likely to be among the nation’s most competitive to an under-the-radar contest in a blue district in Southern California that could become a battleground as the election cycle unfolds.
“If [Republicans] can keep up the trend next year without Trump on the ballot, that could be the difference-maker in competitive races that we’re all used to talking about… and even start to pull solidly Democratic districts that we haven’t normally considered competitive… into the conversation,” analyst Nathan L. Gonzales said.
But, Gonzales added, “continuing the positive movement among Hispanic voters won’t be easy for Republicans in a midterm election with Trump in the White House if voters of all races are concerned about the strength of the economy and direction of the country.”
Republicans have expressed confidence that Hispanic voters will keep trending right, driving a realignment that will help the party maintain its hold on the House in 2026 and set it on a path of future electoral success. The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting Democrats in districts with large Hispanic populations across the country, including California Reps. Adam Gray, Josh Harder and George Whitesides; Texas Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar; and New Jersey freshman Nellie Pou.
“For years, Democrats have taken working-class and Hispanic Californians for granted. Now Latino voters are gravitating toward the Republican Party because commonsense Republican leadership is delivering real results,” NRCC spokesperson Christian Martinez said.
