A Texas special election and primary turnout numbers suggest Latino voters may be shifting again, highlighting the growing influence of Hispanic communities in shaping state politics.
Now, consider recent elections in Texas have shown Latino voters moving away from the Republicans. A special election to the state’s Ninth Senate District on January 31st is a good example. Then, Democrat Taylor Rehmet beat Republican Leigh Wambsganss 57-43 — a 14-point margin in a district Trump carried by 17 points just 14 months earlier. That’s a 31-point swing.
In this contest, majority-Hispanic precincts swung an average of 34 points toward Rehmet compared to the 2022 baseline. VoteHub estimated Rehmet won roughly 79% of the Hispanic vote in the district, compared to the ~54% Democrats captured among Texas Hispanics in 2024. And Rehmet won 30% crossover support from voters who had previously participated in Republican primaries.
Now, special elections aren’t general elections. Turnout was about 15%. But Texas has huge state legislative districts, so SD-9 is actually larger than a congressional district, and Rehmet actually did better on Election Day (58-42) than in early voting (56-44) — the opposite of what you’d expect if this were just a low-turnout fluke. And in light of Democrats doing better with Latinos than in 2024 in contests such as the New Jersey election for governor in 2025, I don’t think we should just hand-wave the contest away.
Additionally, back to the primary, Texans in majority-Hispanic Hidalgo County cast 52,000 votes in the Democratic primary Tuesday night. Just 15,000 voted on the Republican side. Hidalgo County voted for Donald Trump in 2024 by 3 points, the first time a Republican won the county in a presidential race since 1972. So a 52k-15k vote lead is a big deal.
Texas Primaries 2026: Will Latino Voter Support for Republicans Hold After 2024 Gains?
