Goldman Sachs and Federal Reserve data point to an 80% drop in new foreign-born workers, with ripple effects across Los Angeles County industries.
The immigration debate often centers on politics. But in a report just released, the data tells an economic story — and Latino-owned businesses in Los Angeles County are living it in real time.
An analysis from Goldman Sachs projected that new foreign-born worker flows have dropped nearly 80% from historical averages — from roughly 1 million annually in the 2010s to about 200,000 this year. Separate labor force estimates suggest more than 1.2 million immigrant workers have exited the U.S. workforce since late 2025.
The macro impact is measurable. The Federal Reserve has linked slower employment growth in construction and manufacturing to the labor contraction. Census data released in January shows net international migration fell from 2.7 million in 2023–24 to 1.3 million in 2024–25.
For Los Angeles County — one of the most immigrant-driven economies in the country — the consequences are amplified.
According to the Los Angeles County Department of Economic Opportunity, undocumented workers contribute an estimated 17% of the county’s total economic output, nearly $254 billion. A February 2026 joint report with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation found that 82% of surveyed businesses reported negative impacts from immigration enforcement actions. Of those, 44% lost more than half their revenue due to workforce shortages and declining customer traffic.
Construction sites have operated at a fraction of normal staffing. Retail corridors in Boyle Heights and Downtown LA have reported steep drops in foot traffic. A June 2025 curfew tied to enforcement protests alone resulted in an estimated $840 million in lost output and nearly 4,000 job-years.
Contrary to claims that labor tightening would boost native-born employment, multiple economic analyses cited by national outlets show no proportional surge in hiring among U.S.-born workers.
Policy Response: Targeted Relief
In September 2025, LA County launched the Small Business Resiliency Fund. To date, more than $1.53 million has been distributed to 367 impacted businesses. The Board of Supervisors recently approved an additional $3.33 million expansion, expected to support more than 650 additional businesses in early 2026.
New applications for the initial round are closed, but eligible businesses from the first cycle remain on a waitlist. The county’s Office of Small Business continues offering one-on-one counseling and technical support.
For Latino entrepreneurs, this moment underscores a broader truth: workforce stability is economic stability. When labor flows shift abruptly, small businesses — especially those deeply rooted in immigrant communities — absorb the shock first.
The question now is not just policy direction. It’s how quickly regional economies can adapt.
