Early 2026 data raise affordability concerns for millions of Californians
For more than a decade, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) helped dramatically expand health coverage for Latinos in California. Now, that progress is under pressure. Early data from 2026 show a sharp drop in new sign-ups on Covered California, the state’s ACA marketplace, following the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies — raising concerns about affordability, access, and whether coverage gaps could widen again for the state’s largest demographic group.
Latinos are central to California’s health coverage system. More than half of Medi-Cal enrollees are Latino, according to state data, and Latinos accounted for some of the largest coverage gains after the ACA took effect in 2014. Covered California reports that Latino enrollment in its marketplace grew 42% between 2014 and late 2022, a sign of how subsidies and outreach helped reduce uninsured rates.
Research from the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the California Health Care Foundation consistently shows that while Latino uninsured rates fell sharply after ACA expansions, they have remained higher than those of other groups. Some subgroups — including Central American and Mexican-origin Californians — saw especially large gains, while others, such as Puerto Ricans, experienced more modest improvements.
Covered California has confirmed that new enrollments are down about 31% in early 2026 compared with the same period last year. The primary driver: the expiration of enhanced federal premium tax credits at the end of 2025, which raised monthly costs for many households.
Health policy analysts told outlets like The Merced FOCUS that some consumers are responding by switching to lower-cost Bronze plans, which often come with higher deductibles, while others are delaying enrollment altogether, hoping Congress will revive subsidies. National reporting shows similar trends in other states as affordability tightens.
Latinos are not uniquely affected by subsidy changes — but they are disproportionately exposed because of income levels, family size, and reliance on subsidized plans. Advocates caution that even modest premium increases can push working families to drop coverage or remain uninsured, reversing hard-won gains.
“Coverage gains don’t disappear overnight,” a California health policy researcher told CalMatters in recent coverage, “but affordability shocks are exactly how people fall out of the system.”
What to do if costs rise
Covered California is urging consumers to actively review their options using its Shop and Compare Tool, which can reveal lower-cost plans or different insurers. Enrollment counselors also emphasize that Medi-Cal eligibility has expanded in recent years, including for some immigrants previously excluded.
The bigger question now is political and fiscal: whether federal and state leaders will act to stabilize premiums — or allow coverage gaps to widen again. For millions of Latino Californians, the answer will shape not just insurance statistics, but everyday access to care.
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