US President Donald Trump issued threats against other countries following the US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro. In his statements, the US president pointed to Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, and Greenland.
Trump warned that he would “do something about Mexico” to combat organized crime groups and drug trafficking, and reiterated his claims that President Claudia Sheinbaum is “afraid of the cartels.”
These are some key points to contextualize and understand the scope of Trump’s threats and why a US operation in Mexico, which is rejected by Mexicans, is unlikely, according to the El Financiero poll.
Why wouldn’t Trump carry out a US operation in Mexico like the one in Venezuela? To understand the scope of Trump’s threats against Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, it’s important to consider that Mexico has delivered results and addresses the issues that concern the United States, such as migration and the trafficking of fentanyl and other drugs into the US. Furthermore, both countries are strategic economic partners. In addition, unlike Venezuela, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government enjoys democratic legitimacy, while Nicolás Maduro was not recognized as president of Venezuela by sectors of the international community.
The expert believes that a US military operation entails economic costs, complex logistics, and high risks, whereas a comment or post on social media “is cost-free, painless,” and effective as a tool of pressure.
Carlos Pérez Ricart, a researcher at the Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE), warns that “an intervention in Mexico would jeopardize cooperation” in the fight against drug trafficking, the extradition of drug kingpins to be tried in the United States, and the acceptance of deported migrants.
In his view, this would leave the US without a strategic partner. He points out that the only incentive for Trump to make such a decision would be electoral, although it would represent a high risk for the president due to a lack of support, as happened with the invasion of Venezuela.
