Why Parties Keep Losing Latino Voters: Immigration Obsession Clouds Economic Reality

“You’ve got a bunch of consultants and professionals who are saying, this is what Latinos should be thinking about, as opposed to what Latinos are saying, this is actually what we’re thinking about,” said Sacramento political consultant Mike Madrid

Both campaigns for and against Proposition 50 are sharpening their focus on Latino voters as California heads toward a November special election that could reshape the state’s congressional districts.

A new Tuesday poll from the Latino Community Foundation shows 54% of Latino voters support Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposal to redraw the state’s congressional maps in response to a Texas gerrymander.

California’s new districts could net Democrats five additional U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterms.

And it seems that both parties are still unclear about how to connect with Latino voters. With the pressure of ICE immigration raids, the most pressing issues for Latinos however, The LCF poll showed the top five ranking issues for California Latinos were: cost of living and inflation; hosting costs and affordability; jobs and the economy; health care costs; and homelessness.

“You’ve got a bunch of consultants and professionals who are saying, this is what Latinos should be thinking about, as opposed to what Latinos are saying, this is actually what we’re thinking about,” said Sacramento political consultant Mike Madrid, who has studied Latino voting trends for more than three decades, said both parties risk missing the mark.

Madrid argues that whichever party can connect on economic issues will gain the edge.

“Neither party is taking advantage of that opportunity. Democrats particularly have missed the ball. They seem kind of culturally fixated on the immigration issue specifically, when the real opening is sitting right in front of them: which is talk about people where they’re at,” he said.

“Will they do that in the Prop 50 campaign? There’s certainly time to make those adjustments, but they have not made that adjustment yet, and it’s probably why these numbers, while good, are a lot more anemic and a lot lower than where they normally are at this point in the race.”

Newsom’s Prop 50 was in response to Texas, where last month his Republican-controlled Legislature signed off on new districts drawn to help Republicans maintain their narrow House majority by making five seats.

When asked about how they plan to vote on Prop 50, just 46% of respondents said they plan to vote yes, 20% plan to vote no and and 29% said they are unsure how they will vote on Prop 50. Sixty-two percent said they plan to vote in the upcoming special election. Pollsters surveyed 1,200 voters within the last two weeks, and 17% the poll interviews were conducted in Spanish.

In less than two weeks, California’s eligible voters will begin receiving ballots by mail for the Nov. 4 special election. About 40% of those eligible voters are Latino, and both Republican and Democratic organizers are spending time and resources to try and sway this critical voting bloc. Over the weekend, the Democratic National Committee launched a bilingual canvassing efforts over the weekend, urging Latinos to back Prop 50. Their team of 41,000 volunteers are working on traditional grassroots campaign efforts to sway voters through door knocking, phone calls and text messages to Latino voters.

Republicans working on opposition campaigns are rolling out Spanish-language television and digital ads as well as mailers. A “No on 50” spokesperson tells that the campaign is also recruiting Latino-focused groups and leaders to “join our coalition and help promote our message opposing Prop 50 and how it impacts Latino communities.”

In 2024, more voters in California’s 12 Latino-majority counties supported Donald Trump than in 2020. But Madrid cautions that it may not be the start of a long-term trend.

“We are the blue-collar working class. We are the essential workforce that makes our economy work,” Madrid said. “If you speak to those issues, you’re going to win the vote. The reason why we’re swinging back and forth is because neither party is capable of addressing that primary prioritized issue.”