President Trump won a higher percentage of the Latino vote in 2024 than previously believed and came within striking distance of capturing a historic majority of those voters, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of the election results.
The analysis confirms what early exit polls hinted: Kamala Harris dramatically underperformed previous Democratic presidential candidates among Latinos, a rapidly growing and once-solidly Democratic voting bloc that has taken a big swing toward Republicans.
Pew’s analysis of election data shows that Trump won 48% of Latino voters — a group that had soundly rejected him in 2020 and 2016 — and that it was a crucial factor in his victory.
The findings challenge claims by some left-leaning Hispanic political operatives that the early exit polls — which suggested Harris’ percentage of the Latino vote was in the mid-50s, still a decline for a Democrat — were incorrect, and that her losses among Latinos were minimal.
Pew says the exit polls were off, but that the results were even worse for Harris — 51% of the Latino vote.
The new data also shows that Trump rode back into office with a more ethnically and racially diverse coalition than previously known.
Trump’s showing among Latinos was the best performance by a GOP presidential candidate in modern times, according to an Axios review of past elections dating back to 1960.
Joe Biden took 61% of the Latino vote compared to Trump’s 36% in 2020, a 25-point advantage.
Hillary Clinton received 66% of the Latino vote to Trump’s 28%, a 38-point advantage.
“This is no longer a wake-up call” for Democrats. “This is damn get your-act together call,” said Sisto Abeyta, a New Mexico-based Democratic political consultant for the Nevada-based firm TriStrategies.
Abeyta said Democrats have been bleeding support from Hispanic men for some time by focusing on abortion and environmental issues instead of the economy.
“Of course, Hispanic men want to breathe clean air. Many also work in the oil industry and want their jale (slang in Spanish for job).”
Abeyta believes Democrats have also been listening too much to D.C.-based consultants and have lost touch the priorities of many Latino voters.
Pew’s findings indicate that a growing number of Latinos looked beyond the racist rhetoric Trump used to describe unauthorized immigrants in an election in which the economy and inflation topped voters’ concerns.
The analysis confirmed that Trump won a majority of Hispanic men (50-48) while Harris won a majority of Latinas (52-46).
Hispanics were a growing share of Trump’s support while white non-Latino voters were a declining share, or a smaller share, said Mark Lopez, Pew’s director of race and ethnicity research.
